PSX Rally: KSE-100 Gains 3,987 Points as Oil Prices Ease

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) extended its recovery rally during the outgoing week as declining international oil prices eased inflation concerns and encouraged investors to seek value across the market.

The benchmark KSE-100 index crossed the 180,000-point threshold during the second-last trading session but failed to sustain its gains as investors booked profits. Cautious sentiment amid domestic political uncertainty also limited the market’s upward momentum.

According to Arif Habib Limited (AHL), the KSE-100 index gained 3,987 points, or 2.29%, week-on-week to close at 177,873.88 points on Friday. During the week, it touched an intraday high of 180,769 points and a low of 176,292 points.

Topline Securities attributed the positive performance primarily to declining crude oil prices and improving investor sentiment amid expectations of easing Middle East tensions following the US midterm election results.

International oil prices retreated during the week, with Brent crude falling to approximately $96.10 per barrel by Friday. The decline from elevated levels helped ease concerns over imported inflation and Pakistan’s economic outlook.

Among key economic developments, workers’ remittances increased 14% year-on-year to $3.9 billion in October, compared with $3.4 billion in the corresponding month last year. Inflows also rose 8% month-on-month, taking cumulative remittances during the first four months of FY27 to $14.8 billion, up 14% from a year earlier.

Pakistan recorded a fiscal surplus of Rs1.274 trillion, equivalent to 0.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), during the first quarter of FY27. This represented a 40% decline from Rs2.119 trillion, or 1.7% of GDP, in the same period last year. The primary surplus stood at approximately Rs3 trillion.

Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collections reached Rs3.086 trillion, increasing 7% year-on-year, while interest payments rose 23% to Rs1.7 trillion.

In the latest Treasury bill auction, the government raised Rs587 billion against a target of Rs400 billion, while cut-off yields declined by 22 to 48 basis points across different tenors. Meanwhile, central government debt decreased 1% during the first quarter of the current fiscal year to Rs82.7 trillion as of September 30.

The State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $11.3 million to $21.6 billion as of November 6, while commercial banks’ reserves declined by $37.1 million to $5.3 billion. Total liquid foreign exchange reserves stood at $26.8 billion, providing import cover of approximately three months.

On the energy front, petroleum prices declined by around Rs21 per litre to Rs332, while high-speed diesel prices fell by Rs22 to Rs360 per litre.

Weekly oil production edged up 0.5% to 65,200 barrels per day, while gas output increased 3.3% to 3,106 million cubic feet per day. Higher production from the Uch, Kandhkot, Naimat West and Sutiari Deep fields supported the increase.

The automobile sector also recorded strong growth. Passenger car sales increased significantly in October, with industry data pointing to stronger demand, particularly for smaller-engine vehicles. The Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association reported sales of 21,635 units, up 60% year-on-year.

The Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.02% against the US dollar, closing at Rs276.60 compared with Rs276.66 in the preceding week.

At the sector level, exploration and production companies led the market’s gains, contributing 1,058 points to the benchmark index. Banks followed with 1,036 points, while cement, fertiliser and investment banking sectors contributed 545, 317 and 187 points, respectively.

Among individual stocks, Mari Petroleum made the largest positive contribution, adding 582 points. United Bank contributed 264 points, followed by Lucky Cement with 250 points, Pakistan Petroleum with 244 points and Habib Bank with 202 points.

National Bank was the largest negative contributor, shedding 48 points. Attock Refinery, Adamjee Insurance, Pakistan Telecommunication and Cnergyico also weighed on the index.

AHL expects the market to maintain a cautiously optimistic trajectory, with further gains possible if international oil prices remain stable.