PSX gains 7,478 points in week falling oil prices amid US election

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged a strong recovery during the outgoing week, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index rising 4.5% to 173,887 points, gaining 7,478 points from the previous week’s close of 166,409, as falling international oil prices and improving global market sentiment boosted investor confidence.

According to the Pakistan Weekly Update released on Friday, the market rally was supported by positive sentiment following the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections, which triggered a sharp decline in global oil prices on November 4, 2026.

On the economic front, Pakistan’s inflation eased to 9.6% year-on-year in October, down from 10.3% in September, providing some relief on the domestic macroeconomic front.

Meanwhile, the government raised Rs385.6 billion through government securities against a target of Rs350 billion. Overall yields declined by 0.4 to 12 basis points, with the three-year tenor attracting the highest participation of around Rs165.3 billion.

Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at $3.9 billion in October, as imports increased faster than exports. Exports rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month to $2.9 billion, while imports surged 11.8% year-on-year and 5.7% month-on-month to $6.8 billion, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

In the fertiliser sector, urea offtakes increased 39% year-on-year to 487,000 tons in October. Agritech Limited (AGL) recorded the highest growth of 87% to 36,000 tons, followed by Fauji Fertiliser Company (FFC), whose sales increased 54% to 257,000 tons. Fatima Fertiliser’s sales rose 30% to 56,000 tons, while Engro Fertilisers recorded a 13% increase to 138,000 tons.

In the energy sector, oil production rebounded 8.9% week-on-week to 64,700 barrels per day, mainly due to the restoration of flows from northern fields. Gas production, however, edged down 0.4% to 3,063 million cubic feet per day, primarily because of lower output from Mari.

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The government reduced petrol prices by 6.7% to Rs352.59 per litre from Rs377.91, while high-speed diesel prices declined 4.6% to Rs382.25 per litre from Rs400.67. The reductions were entirely driven by lower ex-refinery prices.

Refinery upliftment increased 9.7% year-on-year to 1.119 million tons in October, supported by higher high-speed diesel and furnace oil sales. On a monthly basis, upliftment also improved 3.2%.

However, oil marketing companies (OMCs) recorded a 1% year-on-year decline in total energy product sales to 1.48 million tons during October. Excluding furnace oil, sales fell 5.9%, with high-speed diesel and petrol sales declining 7.3% and 2.3%, respectively, amid higher fuel prices.

In the currency market, the rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03% against the US dollar, closing at Rs276.66 compared with Rs276.75 a week earlier.

Outlook

Looking ahead, market direction is expected to remain sensitive to developments in US-Iran negotiations, movements in international oil prices and the upcoming MSCI review scheduled for November 11.

The KSE-100 is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 times, offering a dividend yield of 6.8%, according to the report.

The brokerage house identified OGDC, PPL, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, NBP, AKBL, NPL, ENGROH, PSO, DGKC and SAZEW as its preferred stocks.