Pakistan Inflation: Tomato Prices Push Weekly SPI Higher Despite Cheaper Fuel

Pakistan’s inflation accelerated during the week ended November 5, as a sharp increase in tomato prices outweighed relief from cheaper petrol and diesel, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), which tracks changes in the prices of essential commodities, increased by 0.29% week-on-week, while annual inflation reached 12.31%. The rise reversed the previous week’s 0.35% decline and pushed annual SPI inflation to its highest level in the ten-week period covered by the report, up from 11.32%.

The combined SPI increased to 374.61 points from 373.51 points a week earlier, compared with 333.55 points in the corresponding week of November 2025.

Tomatoes recorded the largest weekly price increase, surging 54.18% to an average of Rs193.81 per kilogram from Rs125.70. The increase alone added approximately 0.49 percentage points to the combined SPI, exceeding the overall weekly inflation rate.

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices also climbed 3.72%, taking the average price of an 11.67-kilogram domestic cylinder to Rs6,497.89 from Rs6,264.79.

Other commodities that became more expensive included potatoes, up 2.07%; eggs, 1.17%; garlic, 1.06%; firewood, 1.01%; powdered salt, 0.91%; plain bread, 0.64%; fresh milk, 0.49%; and curd, 0.41%. Matchbox and shirting prices also increased by 0.16% and 0.15%, respectively.

Lower petroleum prices provided some relief. Petrol prices fell 4.20% to an average of Rs364.23 per litre from Rs380.18, while high-speed diesel declined 2.97% to Rs390.13 from Rs402.08. The petrol price reduction alone lowered the combined SPI by approximately 0.39 percentage points, according to PBS calculations.

Several food items also became cheaper during the week. Gram pulse prices declined 1.08%, bananas 0.85%, onions 0.82%, powdered milk 0.73%, chicken 0.61%, sugar 0.40%, wheat flour 0.34% and moong pulse 0.27%.

The average price of a 20-kilogram wheat flour bag fell to Rs2,941.34 from Rs2,951.46, while sugar declined to Rs140.55 per kilogram from Rs141.12. Chicken prices dropped to Rs428.53 per kilogram from Rs431.15, and onions eased to Rs188.18 from Rs189.74.

Of the 51 essential commodities monitored by PBS, prices of 21 items, or 41.18%, increased during the week. Another 10 commodities, representing 19.60% of the basket, became cheaper, while prices of the remaining 20 items, or 39.22%, remained unchanged.

The impact of rising prices varied across household expenditure groups. Families in the lowest expenditure category, with monthly spending of up to Rs17,732, recorded the steepest weekly increase at 0.86%, compared with the combined SPI rise of 0.29%.

Crypto Prices: Bitcoin and Ether Hit Lowest Levels Since August Amid US Regulatory Fears

Households spending between Rs17,733 and Rs22,888 experienced a 0.70% increase, while the third group, covering monthly expenditure of Rs22,889 to Rs29,517, recorded a 0.52% rise.

Inflation increased 0.40% for households spending between Rs29,518 and Rs44,175. The highest expenditure group, with monthly spending above Rs44,175, recorded the smallest weekly increase at 0.10%.

On an annual basis, however, the highest expenditure group recorded the largest increase at 12.75%. It was followed by the second group at 11.72%, the fourth at 10.68%, the third at 10.33% and the lowest expenditure group at 10.15%.

The annual data showed substantial increases in several food and energy prices despite recent weekly declines in some commodities. LPG recorded the largest year-on-year increase at 114.88%, with the average domestic cylinder price rising from Rs3,023.99 in the corresponding week of 2025 to Rs6,497.89.

Electricity charges for the lowest expenditure group increased 52.38% over the year. Diesel prices rose 39.27%, while petrol became 36.34% more expensive.

Among food items, tomato prices increased 78.89% year-on-year, followed by wheat flour at 33.95%, chicken at 31.81%, chilli powder at 15.55%, mutton at 14.54%, onions at 13.64%, plain bread at 12.35% and beef at 11.06%.

The average price of a 20-kilogram wheat flour bag rose from Rs2,195.81 in November 2025 to Rs2,941.34 in the latest reporting week. Chicken prices increased from Rs325.11 to Rs428.53 per kilogram, while mutton climbed from Rs2,097.11 to Rs2,402.08.

However, several essential food items remained cheaper than a year earlier. Potato prices fell 37.24% year-on-year, while eggs declined 27.59%, sugar 25.03%, powdered salt 14.09%, gur 7.75%, masoor pulse 7.49%, moong pulse 6.79% and IRRI-6/9 rice 1.79%.

The ten-week trend showed annual SPI inflation rising from 8.35% in the week ended September 3 to 12.31% in the latest reporting week, despite intermittent weekly declines.

For the lowest expenditure group, monthly SPI inflation reached 1.26% in October 2026 compared with September, while its year-on-year increase stood at 8.75%.

During the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27, the SPI for the lowest expenditure group increased 4.07% compared with the preceding quarter and 9.92% against the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.

PBS compiles the SPI every week using prices of 51 essential commodities collected from 50 markets across 17 urban centres to monitor short-term changes in consumer prices.