Pakistan could face a 3-million-tonne wheat shortfall in the upcoming crop season, potentially forcing the government to spend around $1.2 billion in foreign exchange on wheat imports unless urgent policy measures are taken before the Rabi season, Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI) President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar warned. Speaking at a press conference, Khokhar urged federal and provincial policymakers to take immediate steps to protect wheat production and prevent a potential food security crisis. He said ineffective agricultural policies over the past three years had severely damaged domestic wheat production and caused an estimated Rs2,200 billion loss to farmers. According to the PKI, the situation requires immediate intervention before farmers begin making decisions about the upcoming Rabi crop. Pakistan Wheat Shortfall Could Reach 3m Tonnes Khokhar warned that Pakistan could fall short of its wheat requirements by approximately 3m tonnes if farmers are not provided with sufficient incentives to cultivate wheat. The resulting shortage could force the government to rely on imports, placing additional pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The PKI estimates that importing the potential shortfall could cost approximately $1.2bn. At a time when Pakistan continues to manage external financing requirements and protect its foreign exchange reserves, such an import bill could add further pressure to the country’s balance of payments. The farmers’ body therefore called for immediate policy action before the Rabi sowing season begins. Khokhar urged the prime minister and the federal minister for National Food Security to officially announce the wheat procurement policy and restore the support price by the end of August. He said farmers need sufficient time to plan their crops, arrange inputs and decide how much land they will dedicate to wheat cultivation. PKI Demands Rs4,702 Wheat Support Price The Pakistan Kissan Ittehad has called for the restoration of the wheat support price mechanism at Rs4,702 per 40kg. According to PKI estimates, farmers currently face a net production cost of around Rs3,761 per 40kg of wheat. The organisation said the proposed support price includes a standard 25 per cent profit margin, which it considers necessary to make wheat cultivation financially attractive for farmers. The PKI believes an appropriate support price could encourage farmers to bring currently fallow land back under cultivation. The organisation has set a target of 31m tonnes of domestic wheat production, arguing that achieving such a yield would help Pakistan reduce its dependence on imports and strengthen national food security. Without adequate incentives, farmers could shift away from wheat toward crops offering better returns, increasing the risk of a domestic supply shortage. Global Events Increase Farming Costs The farmers’ body also highlighted the impact of international developments on Pakistan’s agricultural production costs. According to the PKI, the Gulf conflict that began on February 28, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to higher input and transportation costs. Higher diesel prices have increased expenses for tractors, harvesters, transporters and other agricultural machinery. Farmers are also facing higher tube-well electricity tariffs, adding to irrigation costs. At the same time, disruptions in international shipping have increased transportation costs and extended shipping lead times for agricultural inputs. These factors have made wheat production more expensive and reduced farmers’ profit margins. The PKI argued that the government needs to take these higher production costs into account when setting wheat procurement policies. Farmers Seek Broader Fertiliser Subsidies The PKI has also called for changes to any future fertiliser subsidy programme. The farmers’ organisation said subsidies should be based on nutrient content rather than a single fertiliser product. It specifically urged the government to extend any phosphatic fertiliser subsidy to all relevant phosphatic products instead of restricting support to DAP. The PKI referred to an Economic Coordination Committee decision from March 2022, which it said included various phosphatic fertiliser grades. According to the organisation, nearly 80 per cent of farmers rely on alternative high-value phosphatic fertilisers to improve crop yields. These products include Nitrophos, TSP, SSP, MAP, NP/NPS and NPKs. The organisation warned that restricting subsidies to DAP could distort the market and encourage speculation. DAP-Only Subsidy Could Increase Import Costs The PKI argued that limiting fertiliser relief to DAP could encourage black-market activity while creating unnecessary demand for imported DAP. The organisation said Pakistan already has sufficient domestic supplies of alternative phosphatic fertilisers to meet the requirements of the 2026-27 crop cycle. It therefore urged policymakers to design subsidies around nutrients rather than specific brands or fertiliser types. A broader subsidy mechanism, according to the farmers’ body, would give growers greater flexibility in choosing fertilisers based on soil conditions and crop requirements. The organisation also believes such a policy could reduce unnecessary pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Govt Faces Pressure Before Rabi Season The warning over the Pakistan wheat shortfall comes ahead of a critical period for agricultural policymaking. Wheat remains one of the country’s most important staple crops, making adequate domestic production essential for food security and price stability. A production gap of 3m tonnes could increase dependence on international markets and expose consumers to higher prices if global wheat prices rise. For the government, wheat imports would also mean additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The PKI has therefore called for the immediate restoration of the support price, an early procurement policy announcement and broader fertiliser subsidies. Whether the government adopts these measures before the Rabi season will be crucial for wheat production in 2026-27. Farmers argue that timely decisions are necessary to give growers confidence and prevent Pakistan from facing another costly wheat import cycle.
