Pakistan Petrol Shortage Fears Rise as Fuel Stocks Fall to 14 Days Concerns over a Pakistan petrol shortage are intensifying as the country’s fuel supply chain faces mounting pressure from critically low petrol inventories, delayed import cargoes, rising international oil prices, and unresolved financial issues affecting oil marketing companies (OMCs). Industry officials have warned that Pakistan could face another fuel supply crisis unless immediate policy measures are taken to rebuild fuel inventories and address liquidity constraints across the petroleum sector. According to industry data, Pakistan’s available motor gasoline (petrol) stocks have declined to around 379,442 metric tons, including output from local refineries. Based on current consumption levels, these inventories are sufficient for only 14 days of nationwide demand. Petrol Demand Surges Ahead of Expected Price Increase The supply situation has become more challenging as petrol consumption continues to exceed expectations. During the first 13 days of July, average daily petrol sales reached approximately 25,000 metric tons, nearly 16% higher than projected and 26% above the level recorded during the corresponding period last year. Industry experts attribute the surge in demand to expectations of another increase in petroleum prices. Anticipating higher fuel costs, consumers and dealers have accelerated purchases, placing additional pressure on already limited inventories. Officials caution that if demand remains elevated, petrol stocks could fall further before fresh import cargoes arrive. Global Oil Market Volatility Adds to Supply Risks Developments in international energy markets have further complicated Pakistan’s fuel outlook. Continued tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have pushed up global crude oil prices and shipping costs, making fuel imports more expensive. However, petroleum industry representatives argue that domestic policy delays have worsened the impact of international market volatility. Unpaid PDC Claims Create Liquidity Crisis for OMCs A major concern is the federal government’s delay in releasing approximately Rs66.7 billion in outstanding Price Differential Claims (PDCs) owed to oil marketing companies. Industry representatives say these unpaid claims have severely weakened the financial position of OMCs at a time when companies require significant liquidity to finance increasingly expensive fuel imports. According to industry estimates, the blocked funds could finance imports of nearly 250,000 metric tons of petrol—equivalent to almost five import cargoes—which would substantially strengthen Pakistan’s fuel reserves. Officials noted that OMCs have continued ensuring uninterrupted fuel supplies despite currency depreciation, volatile international oil prices, and higher financing costs. However, sustaining these operations has become increasingly difficult while large government receivables remain unpaid. Import Delays Further Tighten Fuel Availability Pakistan is expected to receive import cargoes carrying approximately 153,000 metric tons of petrol in the coming days. However, industry sources said one planned cargo of 37,000 metric tons failed to arrive after it did not receive regulatory approval last month. Additionally, another scheduled petrol import involving four oil marketing companies has reportedly been cancelled, further tightening supply expectations. Industry representatives also highlighted delays in customs clearance under the Web-Based One Customs (WeBOC) system, saying administrative bottlenecks are slowing the release of imported fuel from ports. Officials warned that when inventories are already operating at minimum levels, even short customs delays can disrupt fuel deliveries to upcountry markets. Diesel Stocks Remain Relatively Comfortable Unlike petrol, high-speed diesel (HSD) inventories remain relatively stable. Current diesel stocks stand at approximately 500,000 metric tons, supported by production from domestic refineries. Nevertheless, industry officials cautioned that panic buying or fuel hoarding could eventually place pressure on diesel supplies if uncertainty over petrol availability continues. OCAC Warns Government of Emerging Fuel Supply Crisis The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) has formally alerted the federal government to the growing risks facing Pakistan’s petroleum supply chain. In a letter addressed to Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik, the council warned that Pakistan’s immediately saleable petrol inventory has fallen to around 370,000 metric tons, equivalent to roughly 15 days of national consumption. OCAC said customs clearance delays through the WeBOC system, the earlier rejection of a planned June import cargo, and the sharp increase in fuel demand driven by expectations of higher international oil prices have all contributed to tightening supplies. The council also reiterated that unresolved payments of Rs66.7 billion in outstanding Price Differential Claims have created a severe liquidity crisis for oil marketing companies, limiting their ability to finance additional fuel imports. Industry Urges Immediate Government Action Petroleum sector representatives believe Pakistan can still avoid another fuel shortage if the government acts swiftly. They have urged the federal government and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to immediately release outstanding PDC payments, expedite customs clearance procedures, and facilitate the uninterrupted movement of imported fuel cargoes. Industry officials warned that failure to resolve these issues could trigger panic buying, fuel hoarding, and temporary dry-outs at petrol stations, similar to previous supply disruptions. While diesel supplies remain relatively comfortable, they stressed that maintaining adequate petrol inventories is essential to ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability and preventing disruptions to Pakistan’s transportation, industrial, and commercial sectors.
