Pakistan Current Account Surplus Narrows to $1.07bn in March 2026
Pakistan recorded a current account surplus of $1.07 billion in March 2026, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The figure shows a 16.1% decline compared to a surplus of $1.28 billion in March 2025. Despite the yearly drop, the data reflects a strong recovery on a monthly basis. The surplus widened significantly from $231 million recorded in February 2026. This sharp increase signals short-term improvement in the country’s external account. Monthly recovery provides relief The jump in surplus from February to March highlights improving external stability. Analysts say the increase reflects better control over imports and steady inflows. The improvement has provided temporary relief to policymakers managing economic pressures. However, experts caution that monthly gains do not fully offset the annual decline. Pakistan continues to face structural challenges in its external sector. Sustained progress will require consistent policy measures. Cumulative performance weakens On a cumulative basis, the current account posted a surplus of just $8 million in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026 (9MFY26). This is sharply lower than the $1.674 billion surplus recorded in the same period last year. The decline shows that overall external performance has weakened. Economists attribute this to higher external payments and lower export growth. The data highlights the need for long-term improvements in trade and investment flows. Exports show mixed trend Goods exports stood at $2.53 billion in March 2026. This marks an 8.4% decline compared to $2.76 billion in March 2025. The drop reflects weak global demand and domestic production constraints. On a monthly basis, exports improved slightly. They rose from $2.48 billion recorded in February. The increase suggests gradual stabilization in the export sector. Experts say Pakistan must focus on boosting export competitiveness. Diversification and value-added products remain key to long-term growth. Imports decline modestly Imports of goods were recorded at $4.90 billion in March 2026. This represents a slight 0.7% decrease compared to $4.94 billion in March 2025. Imports also declined from $5.17 billion in February. Lower imports helped reduce pressure on the current account. Analysts note that import controls and reduced demand contributed to the decline. However, weaker imports may also signal slower economic activity. Trade deficit widens annually The trade deficit in goods widened by 9.0% year-on-year. It reached $2.38 billion in March 2026, compared to $2.18 billion in March 2025. This increase reflects the decline in exports relative to imports. On a monthly basis, the deficit narrowed. It improved from $2.69 billion recorded in February. This suggests some easing of trade pressures in the short term. Economists stress the need to reduce the trade gap. Sustainable improvement depends on stronger exports and efficient import management. Services sector supports balance The services sector performed strongly in March. Exports of services rose 16.2% year-on-year to $903 million, up from $777 million in March 2025. Growth in IT and related services likely supported this increase. On a monthly basis, services exports also rose from $800 million in February. This consistent growth highlights the sector’s increasing importance. Imports of services remained relatively stable at $926 million, compared to $897 million a year ago. Stable imports helped improve the services balance. Services deficit narrows sharply The deficit in services trade narrowed significantly to $23 million in March 2026. It was $120 million in March 2025. This sharp reduction reflects strong export performance and controlled imports. Analysts view this as a positive development. The services sector continues to play a key role in supporting the external account. Overall balance shows mixed signals The combined trade balance for goods and services recorded a deficit of $2.40 billion in March 2026. This is slightly higher than $2.30 billion in March 2025, showing a marginal annual increase. However, the deficit improved from $2.81 billion in February. This indicates short-term progress in managing external pressures. Experts say the mixed trend reflects underlying economic challenges. While monthly improvements are encouraging, long-term sustainability remains uncertain. The data presents a mixed picture of Pakistan’s external sector. Monthly gains indicate some stabilization. However, year-on-year declines highlight ongoing risks. Economists emphasize the need for structural reforms. Increasing exports, attracting investment, and managing imports remain critical priorities. Consistent policy implementation will be essential. The State Bank of Pakistan is expected to closely monitor external account trends. Policymakers aim to maintain stability while supporting economic growth. Pakistan’s current account surplus of $1.07 billion in March 2026 reflects short-term improvement. The strong monthly increase provides some relief. However, the annual decline and weak cumulative performance highlight persistent challenges. Sustainable progress will depend on strengthening exports and maintaining balanced trade. The coming months will be crucial for determining the direction of Pakistan’s external sector.
