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Pakistan could face a severe fertilizer crisis as official projections warn of a urea shortage of up to 500,000 tonnes during the Rabi 2026–27 season. The alarming estimate, presented by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, highlights growing risks to agricultural productivity if key fertilizer plants remain partially shut and demand continues to rise. The report underscores a fragile supply-demand balance. It warns that even minor disruptions in production could push the country toward a significant shortfall. Supply Risks Intensify Ahead of Kharif 2026 According to the ministry’s projections, urea availability during Kharif 2026 remains highly sensitive to the operational status of major fertilizer plants. These include Fatima Fertilizer, Fauji Fertilizer Company’s Port Qasim plant, and Agritech Limited. Multiple scenarios assessed by officials show that supply constraints are likely if these plants do not operate at full capacity. In the worst-case scenario, where two major plants remain shut and one operates partially, domestic production could fall sharply. This scenario could lead to a mismatch between supply and demand. As a result, farmers may struggle to secure adequate fertilizer during critical crop cycles. Even in relatively improved scenarios, the supply outlook remains tight. Analysts say this reflects deeper structural weaknesses in Pakistan’s fertilizer production system. Worst-Case Scenario Signals Sharp Shortfall Under Scenario I for Kharif 2026, total urea availability is projected at 3.478 million tonnes. This includes 0.8 million tonnes of opening inventory and 2.678 million tonnes of domestic production. However, estimated offtake stands at 3.364 million tonnes. This would leave a closing inventory of just 114,000 tonnes. More critically, buffer stock could turn negative by 186,000 tonnes. Such a situation would significantly reduce the country’s ability to absorb shocks. Any unexpected surge in demand or disruption in production could worsen the crisis. Officials warn that maintaining a healthy buffer stock is essential. Without it, price volatility and supply shortages could intensify. Rabi 2026–27 Outlook Raises Alarm The situation appears even more concerning for the Rabi 2026–27 season. Projections suggest that shortages could persist despite the assumption that all plants resume operations from October. Under Scenario I for Rabi 2026–27, total urea availability is expected to reach 3.332 million tonnes. This includes 181,000 tonnes of opening inventory and 3.151 million tonnes of production. Against an estimated offtake of 3.486 million tonnes, the country could face a deficit. Closing inventory may fall to negative 154,000 tonnes, while buffer stock could decline further to negative 454,000 tonnes. Even under Scenario II, where only one plant remains offline during Kharif, the outlook remains challenging. Total availability is projected at 3.631 million tonnes, with closing inventory at 145,000 tonnes. However, buffer stock would still remain negative at 155,000 tonnes. These projections clearly indicate that supply-demand imbalances may continue into the next crop cycle. Rising Demand and Smuggling Risks The ministry has also highlighted rising demand as a key concern. Urea offtake is expected to increase during Kharif 2026 due to improved farm economics compared to last year. At the same time, a significant price gap between domestic and international markets could create additional pressure. Currently, urea prices in Pakistan stand at around Rs4,500 per 50 kg bag, compared to nearly Rs14,000 in global markets. This disparity may encourage cross-border smuggling. Such activities could further reduce local availability and deepen the supply crisis. Officials stress that controlling smuggling will be critical. Without effective enforcement, even adequate production may fail to meet domestic demand. No Imports Planned Amid Growing Concerns In a surprising move, the ministry’s projections assume zero urea imports in the coming months. This decision has raised concerns among industry experts. Imports often serve as a buffer during periods of shortage. Without them, Pakistan’s reliance on domestic production becomes absolute. Analysts warn that any disruption in local manufacturing could have immediate and severe consequences. They urge policymakers to keep import options open as a contingency measure. DAP Supply Stable but Risks Remain While urea faces potential shortages, the outlook for DAP fertilizer appears relatively stable. Officials say supply-demand conditions remain balanced based on five-year average trends. However, international price volatility continues to pose a risk. Domestic fertilizer prices remain closely tied to global market movements and exchange rate fluctuations. Any sudden increase in international prices could impact affordability for local farmers. Urgent Need for Policy Intervention The ministry has called for immediate and proactive policy measures. It emphasises the importance of ensuring uninterrupted operations of all ten urea manufacturing plants. Officials believe that stabilising production is the most effective way to prevent shortages. They also recommend stricter controls to curb smuggling and maintain price stability. Without timely intervention, the consequences could be far-reaching. Reduced fertilizer availability may impact crop yields, increase food prices, and strain the overall economy.