KARACHI: As the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy supplies, Pakistan’s power sector is pivoting to dirtier fuels, raising serious environmental red flags.
A new report from Optimus Research warns that regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) shortages, triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Qatar’s LNG facilities, could force a surge in residual fuel oil (RFO) generation to 530 GWh in March—jumping its mix to 5.7% from a mere 0.2%.
This shift comes as Qatar, supplier of 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports, halts exports, leaving a 815 GWh RLNG shortfall.
RFO, priced at PKR 54.5/KWh amid Brent crude at $90/bbl, is 150% costlier than RLNG and far more polluting. Burning RFO emits high levels of CO2, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter, exacerbating air quality issues in northern regions where plants are concentrated.
Studies show fossil fuels like RFO contribute to toxic waste streams, including arsenic and mercury, threatening water and soil in Punjab and Sindh. In Karachi, Usman, this could worsen smog episodes, already linked to power generation emissions.
Environmental groups warn of heightened health risks, with NO2 hotspots intensifying around urban centers.
The conflict, involving U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, has sent gas prices soaring 52% globally, forcing Pakistan to ration supplies and shut urea plants.