Karachi, December 15, 2025 – The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) convened today for its final meeting of the calendar year, with market experts unanimously anticipating no change in the key policy rate, which has remained steady at 11% since May 2025.
Analysts from Arif Habib Limited and a Reuters poll of 12 experts predict the central bank will maintain the status quo, citing fading base effects on inflation, a slight widening of the current account deficit, and the early stages of economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also cautioned that inflation risks persist, urging policymakers to keep the stance “appropriately tight.”
Headline inflation rose to 6.1% year-on-year in November from 5.6% in September, while core inflation held at 7.3%. Economic activity shows momentum through robust high-frequency indicators, but uncertainties loom from volatile global commodity prices—oil has dropped over 6% to around $57 per barrel—challenging export prospects, and potential food supply disruptions.
Since the October MPC meeting, the Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.2%, petrol prices stayed stable, and the current account recorded a $112 million deficit in October after prior surpluses. SBP’s foreign exchange reserves climbed to $14.58 billion as of December 5, boosting total liquid reserves to $19.61 billion.
Despite calls from industrialists for a rate cut to stimulate growth, forecasts for easing have been deferred to late FY26 (ending June 2026) or even FY27. The decision reflects a cautious approach to anchor inflation toward the 5-7% medium-term target amid recovering growth.