Pakistan SPI inflation recorded a marginal weekly decline, offering short-term relief to consumers, even as year-on-year price pressures remain elevated. According to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) fell by 0.09% compared to the previous week, while showing a 2.83% increase on an annual basis.
The SPI is a key measure of short-term inflation in Pakistan, reflecting price movements of essential commodities that directly impact household budgets.
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Pakistan SPI Inflation: Weekly Price Movement Snapshot
During the reviewed week, PBS monitored price changes across 51 essential commodities collected from 50 markets in 17 cities nationwide.
Instead of tabulated data, the weekly breakdown can be explained as follows:
• Roughly one-quarter of essential items experienced price increases, indicating pressure in select food and energy categories.
• Slightly over one-fifth of items saw price reductions, mainly due to seasonal supply improvements in vegetables.
• More than half of the basket remained price-stable, reflecting relative short-term market balance.
This mixed trend highlights that while headline Pakistan SPI inflation eased slightly on a weekly basis, volatility persists in individual commodity prices.
Items Driving Weekly Increase in Pakistan SPI Inflation
The largest weekly increases were observed in food and utility-related items. Chilies powder led the upward movement with a sharp rise of over 6%, followed by chicken prices, which increased by more than 5%.
Other notable weekly increases included:
• Bananas, supported by supply constraints
• Electricity charges for Q1, reflecting energy cost adjustments
• Garlic, eggs, vegetable ghee, pulses, and mutton, all posting moderate gains
These increases partially offset the relief provided by falling vegetable prices and contributed to uneven inflation dynamics.
Weekly Declines Ease Pakistan SPI Inflation Pressure
On the downside, sharp declines in perishable food items helped contain weekly inflation.
The most significant drops were seen in:
• Potatoes, tomatoes, and onions, each posting strong double-digit weekly declines
• Sugar, which fell by over 4%, easing pressure on household staples
• Pulses, LPG, gur, and basmati broken rice, showing modest reductions
These declines are largely attributed to improved supply conditions and seasonal harvest effects.
Pakistan SPI Inflation: Year-on-Year Trend Remains Elevated
Despite the weekly dip, Pakistan SPI inflation increased by 2.83% on a year-on-year basis, signaling persistent structural inflation pressures.
Annual price increases were particularly sharp in:
• Gas charges for Q1, surging nearly 30%
• Wheat flour and sugar, reflecting food security and procurement challenges
• Beef, gur, bananas, firewood, eggs, and powdered milk, all showing strong double-digit growth
Non-food items such as lawn printed fabric and shirting also recorded notable annual increases, indicating broader inflationary transmission beyond food.
Items Recording Annual Price Declines
In contrast, several food staples showed significant year-on-year price corrections:
• Tomatoes and potatoes, benefiting from bumper supply
• Garlic, onions, and pulses, easing affordability pressures
• Electricity charges for Q1 and LPG, providing limited relief in the energy basket
These declines helped soften the overall annual Pakistan SPI inflation figure.
Fertilizer and Cement Price Trends
Outside the SPI basket, PBS data shows:
• Sona urea prices edged slightly lower on a weekly basis and declined significantly compared to last year, supporting agricultural input affordability.
• Cement prices remained broadly stable week-on-week, with a marginal annual increase, indicating steady construction sector demand.
Why Pakistan SPI Inflation Matters for the Economy
Pakistan SPI inflation serves as a critical early-warning indicator for policymakers, businesses, and investors. Weekly monitoring allows authorities to assess price shocks quickly, particularly for food and energy, and respond through administrative or monetary measures when necessary.
As inflation management remains central to Pakistan’s economic stability, SPI trends provide valuable insights ahead of broader CPI readings and monetary policy decisions.