The West Africa-focussed oil producer, which is listed in London, Tullow Oil delivered a sobering trading update on November 21, 2025, cautioning investors that full-year production would hit the bottom of its guided range amid relentless field declines in Ghana and stalled payments from the government there. The company, now laser-focused on West Africa after divesting non-core assets in Kenya and Gabon earlier this year, said output for 2025 is expected around the lower end of 40,000-45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
Worse still, preliminary guidance for 2026 points to a further drop to 34,000-42,000 boepd, underscoring the challenges of maturing reservoirs at its flagship Jubilee and TEN fields. Natural decline rates, compounded by technical issues like water cut in wells, have eroded volumes despite resumed drilling activities.
Cash flow is under severe strain from over $200 million in outstanding receivables owed by Ghana, including critical gas payments and development debts. Tullow reaffirmed $300 million in free cash flow for 2025 but raised year-end net debt expectations to $1.2 billion. With bonds maturing in May 2026, urgent talks are underway with bondholders and commodity traders for refinancing, alongside contingency plans like debt extensions.
CEO Ian Perks emphasized operational efficiencies and cost cuts targeting $50 million in savings over three years. Shares plummeted up to 35% to an all-time low of 5.55 pence, slashing market capitalization below £100 million and highlighting investor fears over potential dilution or restructuring.