Federal Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives Ahsan Iqbal has raised serious alarms over Pakistan’s accelerating population growth, describing it as one of the most pressing threats to the nation’s future stability and development.
In a recent video message, the minister revealed findings from the country’s first Digital Census in 2023, which showed the annual population growth rate climbing from 2.4% in the previous census to 2.55%.
“We are one of the fastest-growing populations in the world,” Iqbal stated, noting that such rates are typically observed in the least developed countries of Africa.
With Pakistan’s current population at 240 million, continued growth at this pace could push the figure to around 400 million by 2050—a daunting prospect that would severely strain resources, infrastructure, and public services.
Iqbal emphasized the direct link between unchecked population expansion and hindered economic progress. Rapid growth, he explained, overburdens available resources, impacts human development indicators, and risks creating a future generation facing deficits in education, skills, and employment opportunities.
He announced that the government is launching a coordinated national effort on population planning, acknowledging that the issue falls under provincial jurisdiction and requires strong inter-governmental collaboration.
A key concern raised by the minister is the structure of the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, where 82% of divisible resources are allocated based on population size.
This formula, he argued, creates a perverse incentive: provinces gain larger shares by having bigger populations, effectively discouraging efforts to promote family planning and control measures. “What incentive does any province have to decrease its population?” Iqbal questioned, calling for urgent debate and reform to remove this distortion.
As discussions on the next NFC Award continue amid delays in technical working groups, Iqbal’s warning underscores the need for immediate policy shifts to align resource distribution with sustainable demographic goals.