BEIJING: China’s exports surged 11.2% year-on-year in November, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of 8.5% growth, powered by a sharp acceleration in shipments to Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa as manufacturers rush to reroute trade ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Non-U.S. exports jumped 14–18% in key emerging markets, while shipments to the United States rose only 3.1%, the slowest pace in 18 months, underscoring successful diversification away from Washington’s threatened 60% tariffs.
Imports, however, grew just 1.7% – well below the forecast 4.2% – signaling persistently weak domestic consumption and excess industrial capacity. The trade surplus swelled to a record $104.6 billion.
Factory surveys released last week painted a cautious outlook: the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for export orders slipped to 49.8, with respondents citing rising protectionism and expected demand slowdown in 2026.
Beijing has accelerated “China +1” strategies, with companies expanding plants in Vietnam, Mexico and Indonesia to retain low-tariff access to Western markets once higher U.S. duties take effect in 2025.
Economists warn that while front-loading and rerouting cushioned 2024, global trade fragmentation will pose mounting challenges next year.