Pakistan urea sales in June 2026 is expected to remain almost flat on YoY basis with 584k tons volumes, while up by 39% MoM.
We believe the MoM recovery in June 2026 is primarily driven by the peak of the Kharif application season, compelling farmers to resume purchases after the temporary pause and delayed buying observed in May 2026, said Muhammad Abdur Rafay, fertiliser analyst at Topline Research. We also believe, the surge is due to the advance procurement at dealer level ahead of the federal budget to hedge against potential price hikes.
The current industry urea inventory is likely to clock in at 0.84mn tons in June 2026 vs 0.99mn in May 2026. Company wise, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) holds the highest inventory of 652k tons followed by Fatima Group (FATIMA) 173k tons, and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) 18k tons.
Cumulatively, the urea sales is expected to clock in at 2.5mn tons up by 6% YoY in 1H2026.
Among the companies, on YoY basis, FFC and FATIMA’s urea sales are expected to witness increase of 12% and 3.4x reaching 301k tons and 140k tons in June 2026, while EFERT is likely to witness a decline of 50% YoY to 103k tons during the month. Similarly, in 1H2026, FFC and FATIMA are likely to record a surge of 25% YoY and 89% YoY with 1.4mn tons and 391k tons, while, EFERT is likely to record a negative growth of 23% YoY with 533k tons, respectively.
Total DAP sales during June 2026 is likely to be down by 59% YoY and 23% MoM to ~47k tons. This takes 1H2026 DAP sales to 484k tons up by 6% YoY. To recall, during 2Q2026, DAP prices remained higher in the range of ~Rs15-16k/bag, in-line with international market.
Company wise data suggests, FFC and EFERT are estimated to record DAP sales of 37k tons and 3k tons in June 2026. Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 252ktons in June 2026.
Outlook: Going forward, we expect urea sales to remain resilient, backed by steady agricultural demand and improved farmers income amidst higher crop prices.