This request is seen as conflicting with the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), which sets RLNG demand benchmarks for the power sector.
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RLNG volumes for 2026 were finalized in line with IGCEP during joint ministerial meetings, incorporated into studies, and agreed upon with QatarEnergy by late November 2025.
The downward revision creates a divergence, potentially leading to surplus cargoes and operational disruptions.
Operational and Financial Challenges
Post-finalization demand changes have already caused high line pack pressures in the gas system, forcing curtailment of about 200 MMCFD of indigenous gas to preserve system integrity.
This risks damage to gas fields, revenue shortfalls for exploration companies, and lower non-tax government income.
The Petroleum Division has urged the Power Division to stick to IGCEP volumes, allowing only 5–10% tolerance for fluctuations.
Surplus LNG Management Strategies
Declining gas demand, mainly from the power sector, has led to surplus cargoes under Qatar LNG agreements.
The Federal Cabinet approved diverting 24–29 Qatar cargoes for 2026 under the Net Proceed Differential (NPD) mechanism.
In 2025, 11 surplus cargoes were sold via NPD, with five deferred. Projections indicate around 177 additional surplus cargoes from mid-2025 to end-2031 (roughly 24 per year).
QatarEnergy agreed to place 24 cargoes (two monthly) under NPD for 2026.
Ministerial Stance and Path Forward
Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik emphasized avoiding breaches of bilateral contracts due to planning shortcomings.
Options presented to the Economic Coordination Committee included mutual reductions, deferred recoveries, full NPD application, or contract amendments for re-exports.
Initial NPD use is underway for 2026, with future steps based on its performance.