Federal and provincial governments convened in Islamabad on Monday for the second high-level meeting in five days to address an emerging wheat crisis. Punjab and Sindh, the country’s main food-producing provinces, have formally sought substantial releases from federal reserves amid rising prices and low provincial stocks.
The crisis has intensified following procurement shortfalls and rising wheat prices, prompting the federal government to review possible import options while assessing provincial demand.
Root Causes of the Shortage
The crisis stems from policy shifts and procurement failures. Two years ago, the government ended the wheat support price under IMF conditions without establishing a robust alternative mechanism. This year, Punjab and Sindh largely failed to procure wheat directly from farmers.
Federal Response and Import Considerations
Economic Affairs Minister Ahad Cheema chaired the meeting, which reviewed import options to bolster strategic reserves. A final decision on imports was deferred until all provinces submit detailed written demands. Officials noted that meeting current requests could deplete federal stocks held by PASSCO.
The country produced 29.78 million metric tonnes of wheat this year, plus two million tonnes from previous stocks. Estimated national requirement stands at 31.66 million tonnes, suggesting a marginal surplus on paper. However, ground realities tell a different story.
Provincial Demand and Stock Position
Punjab has demanded one million tonnes from federal reserves. Sindh seeks a minimum of 220,000 metric tonnes from stocks available in its godowns, with additional requests up to 700,000 tonnes from Punjab. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa requested around 100,000 tonnes for public sector and 700,000 tonnes for private sector needs.
Provincial reserves remain critically low. Punjab procured only about 480,000 tonnes against a target of three million. Sindh managed just over 200,000 tonnes. Concerns also persist over four million tonnes believed to be hoarded in Punjab that authorities have been unable to trace.
Wheat Prices Continue to Rise
Wheat prices have risen noticeably between June 11 and July 9. In Punjab, the price per 40 kg increased from Rs4,188 to Rs4,423. Sindh saw a sharper jump from Rs4,188 to Rs4,625. Flour prices have reached Rs142 per kg in major cities including Karachi, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad.
Muzzammil Aslam, finance adviser to the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa government, described the situation as the first serious wheat crisis within four months of harvest. He emphasized that only imports could effectively bring down prices.
The Afghanistan border closure since November has eliminated smuggling possibilities. Cheema reiterated that protecting local farmers remains the top priority and no decisions would harm their interests.
Govt Assures Supply Support
Provinces reported stable markets with no immediate crisis during the meeting. Strict actions against hoarding and market manipulation continue. Cheema assured wheat releases according to existing MoUs with PASSCO and additional support where required.
Another meeting is expected within 24 hours. The federal government may need to import between 500,000 and one million tonnes if shortages persist after addressing provincial demands.
Outlook
The evolving wheat situation highlights weaknesses in Pakistan’s wheat management and procurement system. Coordinated efforts between the federal and provincial governments will be essential to stabilize supplies, control prices, protect consumers, and safeguard farmers’ interests if import decisions become necessary.