Pakistan’s energy sector sent mixed signals in November 2025. While overall power generation declined sharply on a month-on-month basis, the underlying story is far more nuanced one of improving efficiency, falling fuel costs, and a gradual transition toward nuclear and renewable energy.
According to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited, total electricity generation stood at 8,050 GWh in November, reflecting a 19% decline compared to October. However, on a year-on-year basis, output remained broadly stable, highlighting seasonal demand patterns rather than structural weakness.
Fuel Costs Drop Sharply, Offering Relief to the Power Sector
One of the most significant developments was the 15% year-on-year reduction in average fuel costs, which fell to Rs6.22 per unit, compared to Rs7.28 per unit in November 2024. Even more striking was the 27% decline month-on-month, driven by lower reliance on expensive fuel sources and a better generation mix.
This decline in fuel cost reflects:
• Increased contribution from hydel and nuclear power
• Reduced dependence on RLNG and furnace oil
• Improved operational efficiency across the grid
For consumers and policymakers alike, this trend provides much-needed relief amid inflationary pressures and fiscal constraints.
Nuclear and Hydel Power Lead the Generation Mix
Nuclear Power Gains Momentum:
Nuclear energy emerged as a standout performer. In November:
• Nuclear generation surged 23% YoY to 2,031 GWh
• Its share in the total energy mix rose to 25.2%, up from 20.6% last year
For the first five months of FY26, nuclear power has generated 9,996 GWh, marking a 13% increase year-on-year and now accounting for 17% of total power generation. This reinforces nuclear energy’s growing role as a stable and cost-efficient base-load source.
Hydel Power Makes a Seasonal Comeback:
Hydroelectric power also showed strong recovery:
• 3,153 GWh generated in November, up 10% YoY
• Share of the energy mix increased to 39.2%, compared to 35.6% last year
After seasonal constraints in October, hydel output rebounded, strengthening Pakistan’s reliance on indigenous and low-cost energy.
Thermal Power Continues to Lose Ground
RLNG and Gas Under Pressure:
High fuel prices and supply constraints weighed on thermal generation:
• RLNG-based generation dropped 23% YoY to 696 GWh
• Natural gas generation fell 21% YoY to 680 GWh
As a result, RLNG’s share in the generation mix declined to 8.6%, while gas fell to 8.4%, underscoring a structural shift away from imported fuels.
Coal Generation Declines:
Coal-based power also lost momentum:
• Local coal generation declined 26% YoY
• Imported coal output dropped 15% YoY
Coal’s overall share fell to 14.4%, down sharply from 18.6% a year ago. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, both local and imported coal generation remained lower than last year.
Renewables Show Strong Growth, Despite Small Base
While still a small contributor, renewable energy continues to gain traction:
• Solar power generation increased 25% YoY to 86 GWh
• Wind power surged 39% YoY to 136 GWh
Cumulatively, wind generation for 5MFY26 rose 16%, while solar output increased 4%, signaling steady progress toward diversification and sustainability.
What This Means for Pakistan’s Energy Outlook
November’s data highlights a critical transition phase for Pakistan’s power sector:
• Lower generation volumes, but
• Better fuel efficiency
• Higher share of clean and indigenous energy
• Reduced exposure to imported fuels
If current trends continue, Pakistan could achieve greater cost stability and energy security, especially through nuclear, hydel, wind, and solar expansion.
The challenge ahead lies in sustaining this momentum while managing seasonal demand fluctuations and ensuring long-term investment in clean infrastructure.