Islamabad: Pakistan’s population is projected to reach 390 million by 2050 under a slow fertility decline scenario. This marks a staggering 62% increase from the 2023 census figure of 241.9 million.37110d
The official report, launched by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal in collaboration with UNFPA, warns of immense challenges ahead.
Demographic Explosion and Job Crisis
Around 256 million people — more than Pakistan’s current total population — will be seeking jobs by 2050. The working-age population (15-64 years) is expected to jump 89% to 255.4 million. This massive workforce expansion creates both opportunity and risk. Current economic growth hovers around 3.5%, far below the 6-8% needed to absorb new entrants.
Provincial Impacts and Policy Needs
Punjab’s population may grow to 200 million, Sindh to 91.2 million, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa to 68 million, and Balochistan to 25 million. Islamabad Capital Territory could nearly triple to 6.5 million. Experts stress urgent reforms in the NFC Award to incentivize provinces for better population management. Uncontrolled growth threatens resources, infrastructure, and sustainable development.
Even with aggressive contraceptive use, the population would still hit 383 million. The youth bulge (15-29 years) will expand to 100 million, while elderly numbers rise sharply to 22.6 million. Pakistan must invest heavily in education, healthcare, and job creation to harness the potential demographic dividend before it turns into a liability.