Islamabad: The government has initiated high-level discussions to formulate a credible strategy for permanently exiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes after the current $7 billion Extended Fund Facility concludes in September 2027.
Sources told The Express Tribune that a recent meeting assessed Pakistan’s ability to sustain its economy without IMF support. The Planning Commission warned that without urgent reforms—building foreign exchange reserves and developing complete industrial value chains—the country risks entering another bailout programme.
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal emphasised that achieving $63 billion in exports by 2029 is essential to make the current programme Pakistan’s last. Failure to reach this target would create persistent external sector gaps.
The Commission’s assessment projects temporary widening of the current account deficit to below 2% of GDP (over $10 billion annually) as the economy shifts from stabilisation to growth. Additional financing needs are estimated at $4 billion in 2027-28, $5.5 billion in 2028-29, and $3 billion in 2029-30. Cumulative gross financing requirements could exceed $12 billion from 2028-31.
These gaps can be bridged through $4 billion higher exports, $4 billion additional remittances, $3 billion new foreign direct investment, and agriculture import substitution, the assessment states. Converting $14 billion in short-term bilateral loans into long-term financing is also proposed to reduce external pressures.
The Commission outlined a three-phase reform plan: fiscal, energy, governance and export-aligned reforms until 2027; accelerated industrialisation and investment attraction from 2029-32; and a shift toward high-quality, technology-driven growth thereafter.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has directed the Commission to develop a results-oriented strategy under the Uraan Pakistan 10-year plan to sustain growth above 6%, control inflation, and build external buffers. However, critics question the practicality of ambitious targets, including a $1 trillion economy by 2035, amid declining investment, rising unemployment, and regional disparities.