Pakistan is heading toward another important review of its IMF programme, with weak Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection emerging as one of the main concerns. An IMF staff mission is expected to visit Pakistan in September for the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review of the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
IMF Review to Test Pakistan’s Economic Performance
The upcoming review will assess Pakistan’s performance against targets set for the end of March and June 2026. Finance officials have indicated that the mission could arrive during the second week of September, although the final dates have not yet been confirmed.
The review follows the IMF’s May approval of the previous EFF and RSF assessments, which unlocked around $1.1 billion and $220 million respectively.
Most IMF Targets Appear to Be on Track
Available estimates suggest Pakistan is likely to meet most of the programme’s key quantitative targets.
Net international reserves are believed to have remained above the IMF’s required floors, while the State Bank of Pakistan’s net domestic assets also appear to be within the agreed limits.
Foreign-currency swap levels have similarly remained below the programme ceilings. Pakistan has also performed strongly on the primary surplus, with estimates indicating that the government exceeded the IMF’s targets for both March and June.
Government guarantees and targeted spending under the Benazir Income Support Programme also appear to remain within the agreed parameters.
FBR Revenue Collection Remains a Concern
The biggest weakness is Pakistan’s tax collection performance.
FBR collections recorded a substantial shortfall during the first half of FY26, while the full-year collection also remained below the original target. Although FBR collection is an indicative target rather than one of the key quantitative performance criteria for the review dates, continued weakness in revenue mobilisation remains important for Pakistan’s wider IMF commitments.
A potential recovery through the Super Tax litigation could provide some relief, but it is unlikely to completely eliminate the revenue gap.
Structural Reforms Still Matter
The IMF review will not be limited to fiscal numbers. Structural reforms are also expected to remain an important part of discussions.
Key areas include amendments concerning the Sovereign Wealth Fund, remaining state-owned enterprise legislation, energy-sector reforms, privatisation measures and the IMF-backed governance and anti-corruption diagnostic.
If Pakistan meets its main quantitative commitments, some indicative targets and structural benchmarks could be extended or adjusted for the next phase of the programme.
What the IMF Review Means for Pakistan
A successful review would help keep upcoming EFF and RSF disbursements on track and could provide further support for investor confidence and Pakistan’s improving credit outlook.
However, persistent weakness in tax collection could keep pressure on the government to strengthen revenue mobilisation. Any significant structural or fiscal slippage could also result in tighter conditionality during FY27.
For Pakistan, the upcoming IMF review is therefore less about negotiating an entirely new programme and more about demonstrating that the country can consistently deliver on its existing commitments.
The Road Ahead
Pakistan appears to have performed well against several major IMF targets, particularly its primary surplus, reserves and social-protection spending. The FBR shortfall, however, remains a clear vulnerability.
The September review will provide an important test of whether Pakistan can maintain fiscal discipline while making progress on deeper economic reforms. Sustained improvement in tax collection and structural implementation will be essential if the country wants to reduce its dependence on repeated stabilisation programmes over the longer term.