Pakistan’s inflation is expected to rise slightly to 6.3% in November 2025, up from 6.2% recorded in October.
According to a latest report by JS Global Capital, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 is projected to stand at 6.3% year-on-year, with average inflation for the first five months of FY26 (July–Nov) likely to remain comfortable at around 5.0%, significantly lower than 7.9% during the same period last year.
The modest uptick is largely driven by a 7.2% YoY increase in food inflation, fuelled by higher prices of chicken, eggs, and onions, contributing to a 1.3% month-on-month rise in food prices. However, a recent sharp decline in tomato prices provided some relief. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is expected to remain steady at around 6.0% YoY.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11% in its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, citing risks from flood-related supply shocks in agriculture. Analysts believe the central bank will maintain the current rate at least until the next meeting in December, with most expecting no easing for the rest of FY26.