WASHINGTON, Dec 18 — U.S. consumer prices are expected to have increased 3.1% year-on-year in November, marking the largest annual rise in one-and-a-half years, economists forecast ahead of a delayed data release disrupted by the recent government shutdown.
The anticipated acceleration underscores persistent affordability challenges for American households, with rising costs for goods and services partly attributed to tariffs on imports, which critics say have driven up prices across multiple sectors.
The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. However, the 43-day government shutdown prevented field staff from collecting price data for October, making retroactive gathering impossible. As a result, the full October CPI report was canceled, and the BLS confirmed that no month-to-month inflation figures will be published for November.
While some limited CPI component values for October may still become available through alternative sources, the absence of complete sequential data will leave economists without a key gauge of short-term price trends. Monthly changes are critical for assessing whether inflation is accelerating or cooling on a sequential basis.
The year-on-year forecast of 3.1% — if confirmed — would represent a notable uptick from recent readings and the steepest since mid-2024. Analysts note that supply-chain pressures, energy costs, and tariff-related import expenses continue to contribute to inflationary momentum despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to bring price growth closer to its 2% target.
The data disruption highlights the broader economic fallout from prolonged government shutdowns, which not only delay vital indicators but also complicate monetary policy decisions. Markets and policymakers will scrutinize the limited November figures for signals on consumer spending power and potential Fed rate adjustments in the coming year.