KARACHI: Pakistan’s external sector has come under fresh pressure as the trade deficit in goods and services surged 17% to $11.26 billion during the first four months (July-October) of FY26, reversing the gains achieved last fiscal year, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data released on Monday.
The widening gap is primarily driven by a 9.6% jump in goods imports to $20.72bn and a paltry 2% increase in goods exports to $10.63bn. Services exports offered some cushion, rising to $3.03bn (up from $2.62bn), largely on the back of IT exports that climbed to $1.44bn. However, services imports also rose to $4.20bn, limiting the net benefit.
October proved particularly challenging: the current account posted a $733m deficit — the highest monthly shortfall in FY26 — against just $206m in October FY25. Goods imports in the month alone touched $5.27bn, while exports slipped to $2.75bn from $3bn a year earlier.
Remittances continued to act as the economy’s lifeline, growing 9.3% to $12.96bn, but failed to fully offset the deteriorating trade balance. The primary income deficit — reflecting profit repatriation and debt servicing — remained stubbornly high at $3.09bn.
Although foreign direct investment fell to $748m from $1.01bn and portfolio outflows hit $537m in October, the SBP managed to lift gross reserves to $14.64bn by end-October. Analysts warn that scheduled debt repayments and sustained import momentum could quickly erode this buffer if export competitiveness is not urgently addressed.