Pakistan’s annual inflation is expected to rebound to 11.4% year-on-year in August 2026, according to estimates by AKD Research, after easing into single digits in July.
The National Consumer Price Index is projected to rise 1.3% month-on-month, marking its strongest monthly increase in four months. Higher food and fuel prices are expected to be the main drivers of the increase.
Food And Transport Costs Lead Inflation
The food index, which carries a 34.5% weight in the CPI basket, is forecast to rise 2.5% month-on-month and 14.8% year-on-year.
Transport inflation is expected to increase 2.9% month-on-month and 19.6% year-on-year, reflecting higher fuel costs and supply pressures.
Communication services are also projected to remain elevated, with the index expected to rise 13.8% year-on-year.
Food Prices Face Fresh Pressure
Food prices are expected to remain under pressure due to monsoon-related disruptions and transportation challenges.
Onion prices could rise by 59.5% month-on-month, while wheat prices are projected to increase 6.3%. Wheat flour may rise 2.7%, while eggs and gram pulse are expected to increase by 8.3% and 8.1%, respectively.
Tomato and moong pulse prices, however, are expected to decline slightly.
Fuel Costs Add To Inflation Risks
Energy prices are another major source of pressure.
Motor spirit prices are estimated to increase 3.6% month-on-month, while high-speed diesel prices could rise by 15.3%.
Liquid hydrocarbon prices are also forecast to increase 1% amid continuing supply disruptions linked to regional tensions and Strait of Hormuz-related risks.
CPI Expected To Reach 300.9
AKD Research estimates the overall CPI index at 300.9 in August, compared with 296.9 in July and 270.2 a year earlier.
While electricity charges in the housing segment are expected to ease slightly, the reduction is unlikely to offset the broader increase in food, transport and fuel costs.
Inflation Risks Return For Consumers
The projected August rebound signals renewed pressure on household budgets after inflation had shown signs of moderation.
Higher food and transportation expenses could affect consumers most directly, while businesses may also face increased logistics and operating costs.
The inflation outlook will depend heavily on food supply conditions, fuel prices, transport availability and regional energy disruptions in the coming weeks.